The research landscape remains relatively stable. In one poll or another, one candidate or another appears half a point lower, or higher, than in the previous poll. 3 days ago he left the survey: from the election of Collor to the recent ones, who is in front of changing more the tradition that, after years of any government, has had a wear and has worn out, or there has been no wear and you don’t want to change . The choice is always for the economic bias. For 73%, the economy has worsened in the last year. 3 years improved quality of life, your life? From there, if you have a choice, I believe. Regardless of the facade, Bolsonaro was already ahead of Haddad, and would win the election.
This illustration stability the perception is widespread that Bolsonaro does not progress, does not present benefits, stagnant. Lula, with 46% in the first round and Bolsonaro with 29%, is a very accessible advantage. Ciro Gomes has 7%, João Doria has 3%, Simone Tebet has 1% and Luciano Bivar has 0%. 6% choose blank or null, and 3% judged that they still do not know. The result is already defined, there is not much to do. Bolsonaro would have to produce a miracle, to change the picture dramatically. This is not impossible, as I explained in last week’s text.
The government has just changed the Minister of Mines and Energy. This does not change the market, even if it is purely psychological. Petrobras shares rose when they occur, usually inversely, if there is an intervention. On the other hand, we’re getting the news more than 12% a year, melting the world’s money. And a working class has no way of protecting itself from that, unlike the middle class, which will certainly buy bonds. For workers, what exists is recognition, that is, even more indebtedness.
Consumption is clearly decreasing. How many hours of work must we have to buy a Big Mac? Energy is more expensive, and so is water. We work more, we sleep less. We have less leisure time. Meanwhile, Bolsonaro contemplates the presidency. That’s right, contemplate. Every now and then, he starts to protest the government, as if it weren’t. He protests against Petrobras, as if it were autonomous, and it is not. She’s part of his government, man!
As already discussed here, in previous texts, the government has a majority in the company’s controlling shares. So it is run, yes, by the government. Not intervening in Petrobras is a policy, not a ban. So he could intervene, yes! 3 years in government and no energy policy has been presented. The most that was done was to change, from time to time, the president of the company. No program, no planning, no short, medium and long term project. That’s the big problem.
The President is a right-wing activist. It acts eternally against the left, as if it were still in power. He acts as if it were opposition, not situation. The relationship is inverted. From this inertia, the exercise of the presidency is sold to Centrão. These, yes, do what they want, while Bolsonaro appears polemicizing in the media, which is what he knows how to do. As the President asks a black supporter how many “at” he weighs, in a racist joke. No class support, no market support, army puppet. After all, is Bolsonaro even capable enough of articulating a coup? Therein lies the question.