There are so many analyzes that place Bolsonaro as a coup plotter, as someone who may make a ruckus in the elections, that he himself must already be believing in his own ability, and preparing something. He even makes an apology for the 1964 coup, which on the rhetorical level is already execrable. But he reached the Presidency of the Republic by election, and there he remained trying to establish his anarcho-capitalism. He spent 30 years in Congress, being elected, standing still, without expression. Well, Delegado Waldir reminded us, in an interview that went viral this week, that not even his own son attended the Chamber, once, to vote for his father as President when he totaled only 4 votes.
According to professor Paulo Ghiraldelli, a coup needs a ruling class that does not see itself represented in the government. This is not the case with our democracy because the two candidates who are leading the race defend variations of neoliberalism that are easily acceptable to our ruling classes.
A coup would also need a military discontent with salary and hierarchy. Neither candidate poses a threat to military privileges.
Third, the coup plotter needs to be a good organizer, someone capable of maintaining power in a post-coup government. In addition to a certain inefficiency in the public administration, what Bolsonaro does most is say that it’s someone else’s fault. He doesn’t take the government’s responsibility to himself, he doesn’t “hold the ends”, as they say.
Even if the “coup” is interpreted as a post-election riot, of the US Capitol type, what could it do? The American election has a lengthy result. As the votes are being counted, the losing candidate has the opportunity to foment a reaction, creating a certain amount of tension. In Brazil, elections are very fast. The result comes out practically on the same day. Who will defend a coup, having already organized it in advance?
We are not in 1964. There are no social classes physically disputing hegemony in the streets. Internet fights don’t support a coup either, I believe. With these accusations, Bolsonaro, who often has nothing to present, manages to be in the media every day. Even more so now that, according to a recent survey published on May 6, Lula has 44% and Bolsonaro has 31% of voting intentions. You can see the same electoral advantage as all the others who, traditionally, have already won the elections. Collor, Fernando Henrique, Lula, Dilma and Bolsonaro. The polls for president show a dissatisfaction with the current government, which perhaps, for the time being, cannot be reversed.
But life is a box of surprises, and 4 months can be a long time. Politics is made like that. Sometimes something miraculous happens, some information is revealed, and everything can be reversed. What, I believe, will not be reversed, is Brazilian democracy. Will Bolsonaro make a ruckus? Go. Do we need to be prepared? Yes. These people had their chance to govern Brazil, and they didn’t make it. Tomorrow will be a new history.